Russia Sends Medical Units to Ukrainian Front

The White House said Thursday that German Chancellor

Olaf Scholz

would make his first official visit on Feb. 7 and listed the situation around Ukraine as the top agenda item.

The Kremlin’s spokesman said there was little optimism in Moscow that the West would accept its demands over de-escalating the standoff over Ukraine, and said Mr. Putin would take his time in considering proposals delivered by the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization a day earlier.

The U.S. and NATO allies late Wednesday sent written responses to Moscow over its security demands that would redraw Europe’s security architecture by barring former Soviet states from joining NATO and hosting U.S. military bases.

While Washington’s proposals expanded on recent diplomatic efforts to counter fears that Mr. Putin is planning an incursion into Russia’s ex-Soviet neighbor Ukraine, they didn’t address Moscow’s core demands.

“There is not much reason for optimism,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday. “It cannot be said that our considerations were taken into account or that any willingness to take into account our concerns was demonstrated.”

Russia has continued diplomatic talks but also reinforced its troops, which now number more than 100,000 near Ukraine in an unprecedented show of land, air and sea forces.

The Kremlin over recent years has used military exercises and maneuvers as preparations to attack Georgia and Ukraine, but it has also at times moved troops into potentially aggressive positions only to draw them back. Western intelligence analysts and politicians generally agree that Mr. Putin is successfully keeping them guessing and on edge, which may be one of his primary objectives.

The U.S. is preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, while also readying for what officials call hybrid attacks—efforts to subvert the Ukrainian state, sabotage or coercion.

As of late Wednesday, U.S. officials hadn’t determined whether or not Mr. Putin had decided to invade Ukraine.

In a call with Ukraine’s President

Volodymyr Zelensky

on Thursday, President Biden said that the U.S. would respond “decisively” if Russia invades Ukraine. Mr. Biden also reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and “territorial integrity,” according to a White House statement about the call.

“I have no idea whether he’s made the ultimate decision, but we certainly see every indication that he is going to use military force sometime, perhaps now and middle of February,” Deputy Secretary of State

Wendy Sherman

said Wednesday.

U.S. intelligence agencies remain on the hunt for clear indications Mr. Putin had abandoned negotiations and given the troops orders that suggested imminent movement. The agencies think Mr. Putin is mulling whether an invasion would further his overarching objectives, and is gauging the potential impact of threatened sanctions and a U.S. and allied military response. But intelligence officials are aware that Mr. Putin’s calculations are changing constantly.

The U.S., U.K. and Australia have told families of their diplomatic staff in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, to leave amid fear of a Russian invasion. Ukrainian officials and some European diplomats have criticized the move as alarmist. The U.S. has said it is acting out of “an abundance of caution due to continued Russian efforts to destabilize the country.”

German officials say they think a full-scale attack is less likely than a prolonged hybrid war to weaken the government in Kyiv. They worry that what they deem nervous reactions, like evacuating the families of embassy staff, could drain resources and political will among diplomats in Ukraine to continue pursuing a solution.

“The U.S. thinks Putin will do a full-blown war. Europeans think he’s bluffing,” a senior German official said. “Americans are preparing with the sense that it will happen. We don’t.”

Other German officials said the differences were less stark, saying that while Berlin didn’t discount the risks of invasion, Washington seemed more convinced that this was Mr. Putin’s plan.

“Different shades of gray,” a Berlin-based diplomat said.

Other European countries are taking views along the spectrum, including some who see a Russian attack as likely but still consider recent warnings as shrill and counterproductive. Several countries in Europe view the advanced preparations as more likely to be a part of a maximum-pressure campaign by Moscow, likely supplemented by cyberwarfare. They see Moscow’s goal as primarily trying to force political changes in Ukraine and achieve broader negotiations that could impede Ukraine’s westward tilt.

But there are plenty of exceptions, including in Europe’s east and north.

“There is and has been for some time a difference in the sense of urgency,” said a senior Scandinavian diplomat. “But there is no doubt that a number of European countries are more closely in line with the U.S. perception.”

The U.S. doesn’t exclude Russian action short of invasion.

“We’re also looking at scenarios of hybrid attacks or subversion or sabotage or coercion,” said Ms. Sherman. “We have to consider all of these and be ready to act to support Ukraine.”

In Moscow, Mr. Peskov said that Mr. Putin would “take some time to analyze” Washington’s responses Wednesday and urged against rushing to conclusions.

“No matter how diametrically opposed our views sometimes are, dialogue is always needed,” Mr. Peskov added.

—Michael R. Gordon in Washington contributed to this article.

Write to Vivian Salama at vivian.salama@wsj.com, Daniel Michaels at daniel.michaels@wsj.com and Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com